Bitcoin Holds Key Support: NUPL Shows Potential Upside
Bitcoin is currently facing a crucial test, consolidating around $94,000 after a recent pullback from near $97,000. While bullish sentiment is fading and sellers are exerting pressure, the key $92,000–$93,000 support zone is holding for now. Analyst Axel Adler highlights a key risk factor: short-term holders (STHs) typically take profits when their Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) exceeds 40%. Historically, this triggers increased spot market supply and downward pressure. However, the current NUPL is only at 8%, with its 30-day SMA at -2%, indicating STHs are not yet selling significantly. This low NUPL suggests minimal immediate selling risk and supports a bullish outlook. The price action is pivotal; maintaining above $90,000 and pushing towards $100,000 could spark a new bull run. Conversely, falling below $92,000 could signal a loss of momentum and a potential retest of the 200-day SMA near $90,000. Bitcoin’s daily chart shows it remains above both the 200-day SMA and EMA, suggesting a bullish broader trend. While volume is tapering off, indicating short-term indecision, holding above $92,000 would reinforce the bullish case, potentially leading to a renewed breakout towards $100,000. A breakdown below this level could shift the trend short-term bearish. The overall market conditions remain volatile due to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The next few days are critical, with a decisive move above $97,000 potentially igniting the next upward leg, while a drop below $90,000 could risk a short-term bearish reversal. The situation is volatile, and the coming days will be decisive for Bitcoin’s price trend.
(Source: https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-short-term-holders-not-selling-yet-nupl-suggests-upside-potential/)
